ABSTRACT
In evaluating the foreign policy of any American president one must pay attention to two things simultaneously. The first is what their administration has chosen to do – or attempt to do – in the international sphere; that is to say, how they have deployed that power and influence that the nation possesses. The second is how much power and influence the nation in fact possesses relative to others. The answer to this latter question defines the parameters of possibility within which any leader makes decisions, and as such is inseparable from any critical analysis of strategy worthy of the name. It is quite possible that a president lacking accurate information or good judgment may construct and pursue a strategy premised upon an overestimation of the nation’s relative power. It is not likely, however, that such a strategy will be successful, at least not for any reason beyond a super-sized slice of good fortune. To criticise the foreign policy of a nation’s policy without reference to the international distribution of power is like criticising a creature’s flying style without asking first whether it is an eagle, a sparrow or if it even has wings at all.
