ABSTRACT
The near-term future of Afghanistan is being shaped by the ways in which the U.S., NATO/ISAF, and major aid donors interact with the Afghan government as they “transition” by withdrawing their forces and cutting their spending and aid that will shape events for the foreseeable future. This “transition” is already underway, but no one can yet predict how the withdrawal of U.S. and other NATO/ISAF combat forces from Afghanistan in 2014 will actually play out over time. It is not clear how the U.S. and its NATO/ISAF allies will actually manage withdrawal of their forces. Nor is it clear how much continuing support aid donors will provide to Afghanistan through 2014 and beyond, or whether the coming massive cuts in military spending and aid will trigger a major recession or depression during a period when outside troops will leave and Afghanistan’s weak government and forces must go through another election.
