ABSTRACT
It is impossible to sketch possible scenarios for post-2014 Afghanistan 1 – the period after the planned western disengagement, the so-called “enteqal ,” 2 or handover of responsibilities – without an analysis of the causes of conflict, the main mechanisms which have been tried to tackle them and the factors that shape the environment in which they play out. Scenarios for Afghanistan’s development after 2014 highly depend on its development before that crucial year. Therefore, the transition strategy agreed upon by the international community and Kabul as well as its potential for success also needs to be scrutinized.
