ABSTRACT
Since 2014, the EU and the United States have been running an extensive sanctions policy against Russia. However, sanctions have had little significant effect on Russian foreign policy on Ukraine and other issues. This raises a number of research questions. Why have the sanctions against Russia turned out to be ineffective? What is the specific role of the EU in sanctions pressure on Russia? Is EU policy of particular note, or does the EU just follow the United States? How much damage have the sanctions brought to the Russian and EU economies? And, finally, what are the scenarios for the further development of sanctions pressure on Russia? Two explanatory factors are taken into account. First, differences between the United States and EU approaches in terms of the intensity of sanctions: the United States is actively escalating sanctions, while the EU remains primarily within the ‘Ukrainian package’; this may reduce the cumulative effect of restrictive measures. Second, the limited damage of sanctions to the Russian economy, which has suffered losses but also adapted. Further adaptation may decrease the initiators’ chances of success. On this basis, alternative scenarios for the further imposition of sanctions are outlined.
