ABSTRACT
The chance of a power producing its effect could then be a way – perhaps the definitive way – to understand the strength or intensity of the power. Introducing probability into the discussion could give a familiar basis to tendencies and might explain why the dispositional modality is something that is between pure contingency and necessity. The reason why the head and the tail are equally probable statistically, when a coin is tossed, is that the coin is equally disposed towards those two outcomes. Powers interact with other powers, and the probability of any real outcome will almost always be a matter involving many powers, which can influence each other’s exercise. While probabilities and tendencies both admit degrees, probability theory requires a maximal value because it measures ratios of parts to wholes. The propensity account is perfectly compatible with causal singularism and can be an ontological basis for assignments of real and idealised probabilities.
