ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses the global impact of China’s NDC and the Paris Agreement using the model, data, and simulation scenarios in Chapter 7. The study focuses on production of coal and gas and trade among China’s bordering countries. When China alone achieves its carbon peak-out target in 2030, Oceania’s and Indonesia’s exports of coal and gas to China are considerably but oppositely affected. There seem to be differences between changes in industrial structure at the baseline and in the initial trade structure. When international society tackles carbon reduction, coal exports to China exceed the baseline, but coal production is below in most regions. Although Russia likely will export substantially more gas, output declines because of a collapse in domestic demand. This chapter also suggests three results concerning international equity. First, the burden of meeting reduction targets differs, even among developed countries. Second, carbon policy likely impairs terms of trade among energy exporters and enhances them for importers. Third, differences in industrial structure at the baseline, differences in industrial and trade structures, and differences in fuel used to produce electric power alter the effects of carbon policy.
