ABSTRACT

This chapter investigates the following research question: what is the relationship between the strategy and outcome of third party intervention? It aims to enhance the ability of decision-makers to intervene more effectively in intergroup conflicts. In order to achieve this, the chapter examines the use of a Conflict Intensity Abatement Index. The model measures changes in conflict dynamics as a means of evaluating the outcome of third-party interventions. The chapter presents the theoretical literature on third-party intervention. This is followed by the development of a theoretical model to evaluate interventions by third-parties in violent intergroup conflicts. With this accomplished, the model is then tested against two related case studies in Central Africa: Rwanda and Zaire. The chapter concludes that policy-makers must take heed of the lessons learned in Rwanda and Zaire and remember that once the United Nations makes the commitment to intervene in a violent intergroup dispute, it must stay the course of conflict resolution.