ABSTRACT
Climatic conditions have profound impacts on human activity and well-being, and adverse climatic changes can have devastating societal consequences. This chapter highlights the state of the empirical literature on climate and conflict, and discusses the debates around the climate–conflict nexus. It deals with some reflections on possible future research trajectories and reviews the scientific literature that connects climate change and/or variability to the probability of civil conflict. From the reviewed literature, it is clear that climate variability, such as short-term anomalies in rainfall and temperature patterns, exerts a weak direct influence on the average baseline conflict risk across societies. One possible pathway linking climate variability to conflict runs through negative macro-economic income shocks. Climate change is likely to decrease food production and will especially threaten food security in developing countries, whereby governments may lack resources to implement adequate adaptation measures. A final proposed indirect pathway that has been subject to significant scrutiny links climate variability to conflict through migration.
