ABSTRACT
This chapter illustrates how deadly the urban heat island effect is when coupled with rising temperatures, especially in central city neighborhoods with higher density development dominated by pavement and buildings. It examines the potential for urban heat island mitigation as a climate adaptation strategy to reduce projected heat-related mortality in three large US cities by mid-century. The chapter introduces a modeling approach that enables health outcomes resulting from mean warm season temperatures and shorter-term heat wave events to be estimated by employing multiple heat response functions. It discusses a set of climate projections responsive not only to future changes in atmospheric composition, but to changes in land cover characteristics as well, to capture the influence of heat island formation on heat-related health outcomes. The chapter also examines the potential for urban heat management strategies to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality in three large US metropolitan regions by mid-century, using a set of global/regional climate and human health effects models.
