ABSTRACT
The role of luck in science is a popular but complex topic, for at least two reasons. First, it is not easy to arrive at a common conception of luck. Second, whatever luck is, its sources seem to differ in kind and magnitude, making general lessons difficult to extract. The important role of luck and contingency in scientific advance has been much neglected in contemporary philosophy of science, a philosophical atmosphere that favors a narrative of deliberate and controlled scientific experimentation and investigation. The hindsight bias prevents us from appreciating the power of contingency: when progress is undeniable, as it is in every area of developed science, it is easy to believe that it was also inevitable. Good scientists often feel most keenly that they are responsible for their discoveries. But even the most gifted and successful scientists recognize the role of contingency/luck in scientific advancement.
