ABSTRACT
This chapter focuses on the increased competition between several automotive technologies concepts. Based on a comparison of both technologies, it examines their chances of becoming the new dominant design. The chapter discusses the effect of these potential developments on the life chances of the competing technology. The issues of competing technologies, technology substitution and dominant design are central topics in theories of technology dynamics and technological forecasting. Technology dynamics theory frames competing technologies as a variation and selection process. In selection processes, through a series of smaller and larger choices by relevant stakeholders, one technology is selected and this then becomes the dominant design. If the hybrid electrical vehicle (HEV) becomes the new dominant design after internal combustion engine (ICE), the relative advantages of the fuel-cell vehicle (FCV) will be lower compared to the HEV than to ICE. Thus, when the HEV has become the dominant design, the step to the hydrogen FCV will have to be made directly.
