ABSTRACT
Criminological prediction models have proved to be fairly simple in construction with a small number of important predictor variables, and therefore are easily adopted in practice. Criminologist Letizia Paoli observes that both juvenile gangs and terrorist groups frequently become involved in organized crimes, such as drug trafficking, extortion, or weapons trafficking. Organized crime is clearly more prevalent in some geographic areas than in others. Opportunity factors for organized crime are of four types: economic, governmental, law enforcement, and social or technological changes. Cigarette smuggling provides an example of how a risk assessment tool for organized crime can be used in practice. The cooperation of the several groups in evaluating and targeting the risk posed by organized crime involvement in different illicit activities and locations is a logical and necessary step forward. A systematic prediction, or risk assessment, model merely summarizes the experience of the past as a guide to making decisions that affect the future.
