ABSTRACT
In hindsight, people often claim to have known more in foresight than they actually did. For example, the confidence for one of several possible outcomes is larger when it is known that this particular outcome occurred. A widespread explanation of hindsight bias assumes that the feedback serves as an anchor. How precisely this anchor takes effect and why it leads to a bias towards the anchor value has not been satisfactorily answered yet. One possible mechanism to explain hindsight bias assumes that the encoding of the feedback leads to a selective activation of the item-specific knowledge base. As a result, specific information units are strengthened and are thus more likely to be recalled when a person tries to reconstruct his or her original judgment. We tested the effect of selective activation in two hindsight experiments. The results showed a clear hindsight bias in that the recalled confidence ratings were distorted towards the feedback. Moreover, the consequences of selective activation were evident in that more information favoring the feedback was recalled
