ABSTRACT
Precaution has emerged as a response to growing appreciation of the scientific uncertainties surrounding threats of irreversible or serious environmental degradation or biodiversity loss (Perrez, 2002). When discussing threats to conservation in this chapter, we use the term threat to encompass: direct threats, which directly stress the biological components of natural ecosystems; indirect threats, which drive the direct threats; and underlying causes (following CBD, UNEP/CBD/SBSTTA/9/INF/3). To take a concrete example: illegal hunting of wildlife poses a direct threat to wildlife conservation; an indirect threat driving it may be illegal markets for wildlife products; and underlying causes may include poverty and policy failures. Determining the impact or potential impact of threats on wildlife conservation is often difficult. Scientific uncertainty frequently surrounds the qualitative description of threats and assessment of their magnitude and likelihood, stemming from the ecological system itself, from the assessment mechanism or process, and/or from socioeconomic and political factors related to use of biodiversity/natural resources. This chapter takes an interdisciplinary approach to scientific uncertainty, which includes social and political science.
