ABSTRACT
Chapter 4 presented basic principles of crop production: utilization of sunlight to catch CO2, use of land and other inputs, efficiency in input use and crop production systems. Perspectives for breeding, that is, improvement of the genetic basis aimed at improving yield, input use efficiency and crop composition, were given in Chapter 5. The current chapter will discuss one of the most debated questions related to biobased economy: availability of sufficient biomass feedstock. Driven by a range of forces, imbedded in stimulation policies around the
globe, ambitious targets have been set for enhanced biobased production. Be it for biobased chemicals, biofuels, bioplastics, other biomaterials or combustion, the need for biomass feedstocks in the near future must be expected to increase. But will there be sufficient to fulfil our needs? And how will the production of biobased feedstocks affect other sectors? Can we still produce enough food, feed, fibres, construction materials and so on, or will this have to be sacrificed for biomass needed to replace fossil oil, gas and coal? While it is not clear how much biomass will be applied in future biobased production processes, it is clear that this amount potentially is huge. This requires action in order not to disrupt traditional biomass applications. The question whether sufficient biomass is available has played a major
role in the debate on biofuels that raged since policies to stimulate biofuels introduced in the beginning of the 21st century sparked massive biofuel developments, especially in Europe and the USA. In order to assess whether current policies are meaningful and sustainability claims of biomass use are valid, we must assess how much biomass can be made available to replace fossil fuels. Obviously, this chapter cannot provide a final answer to this question, nor will it provide yet another estimate of biomass availability. Instead, this chapter will put increased demand for biomass in perspective and explain why it is so difficult to provide proper availability assessments. This will be done by describing historical trends in biomass production, and by comparing these trends with expected biomass
demands. Against this background, the chapter will discuss outcomes of a number of biomass availability assessment studies, plus some factors affecting future biomass production. The setup of this chapter is as follows. First, demand for biomass fol-
lowing major biobased policies is assessed in the next section. Trends in biomass production are discussed in the third section. Results of inventory studies are presented in the fourth (assessment of production potentials) and fifth sections (other estimates). Factors affecting future crop production are discussed in the sixth section and the impact of enhanced biomass production is discussed in the seventh. This is followed by a discussion and some conclusions.
