ABSTRACT
This case study of Metro Manila demonstrates a process for downscaling global climate projections to a regional level in order to evaluate policy options for responding to a range of plausible scenarios by mid-century. In this case, options were assessed according to the criterion ‘eliminating as much as possible of the flooding projected’ using a set of economic indicators. The study concludes that flood control investment in the Pasig-Marikina River Basin to implement a previously developed master plan is the first priority for climate adaptation. Indeed, the government of the Philippines apparently reached the same conclusion. Thus, in Metro Manila, climate adaptation is not a new, additional effort, but consists of ongoing flood control projects. Accepting the analysis set forth for Manila as basically correct, it is worth discussing several challenges that tend to arise in planning for climate change at a regional scale:
heightened uncertainty respecting near- and long-term climate impacts;
situations in which adaptation requires actions that are qualitatively different from existing development strategies; and
the need to negotiate trade-offs among resource users under conditions of scarcity.
