ABSTRACT
We compare the national allocation plans (NAPs), proposed and submitted by EU Member States as of October 2006, with our estimations for CO2 emissions by the installations covered by these NAPs. The collective allocations proposed under phase II NAPs exceed the historic trend of emissions extrapolated forward. Using our projections we find, depending on uncertainty in fuel prices, economic growth rates, performance of the non-power sector and CDM/JI availability, a 15% chance of a ‘dead market’ with emissions below cap even at zero prices. With an expected inflow of committed CDM/JI credits of 100 MtCO2/year, allowance supply will exceed demand in 50% of cases without any carbon price, and in 80% of our €20/tCO2 scenarios. Banking of allowances towards post-2012 conditions could create additional demand, but this is difficult to anticipate and conditional on policy evolution. The proposed phase II NAPs would result in low prices and only small volumes of CDM/JI would enter the EU ETS. CDM/JI would almost exclusively be public-sector funded, placing the cost of Kyoto compliance entirely upon governments.
