ABSTRACT
Scenario planning starts with the assumption that the future is open and sets out a small number of alternative future contexts. Scenario planning refers to the inquisitive, learner-centric, iterative and adaptive form of strategic planning that is researched and taught at the University of Oxford as the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA). We explore the potential of scenario practice to structure a participatory process for the collaboration of key stakeholders, scientists, and citizens in critically considering alternative framings of challenges and uncertainties that societies face. Scenario planning facilitates holding courageous, forward-looking conversations about uncomfortable choices, disparate worldviews and values, uncertainties and unknowns. These conversations might enable those involved to better assess trade-offs, dilemmas, and differing assumptions that are held about the future. This chapter attempts to show how the use of scenarios can help address each of these challenges. Scenario approaches offer useful methods to help make sense of, or at least provide helpful frames for and clarify, complex, interdependent, and intractable (or ‘wicked’) situations. Moreover, scenarios allow pre-testing of alternative strategies and policies (which may well be normative and visionary) in contexts that are beyond the influence and control of actors.
Scenarios work as a set, and as such, allow and actually encourage multiple and sometimes irreconcilable viewpoints and opinions to be articulated and embedded into the findings. Scenario approaches offer a way to structure and organise participatory process for embracing complexity, contingency, contradictions, uncertainty, and ignorance.
