ABSTRACT
Can lawyers predict the outcome of their cases? In a group of eighty-four criminal defense lawyers, we found that just under half predicted that lawyers would be overconfident in their chances of winning. The remainder incorrectly predicted that lawyers would be well calibrated or under confident in their predictions.
The actual ability to predict was assessed in one hundred eight-two other lawyers, ninety-three of whom primarily practiced criminal law, and the remainder primarily focused on civil defense. These lawyers were asked to think of a case that would be going to trial soon, to provide their minimum goal, and their chances of obtaining that goal. Verdicts were submitted spontaneously or after prompting. We found that in general lawyers were overconfident in their chances of winning, especially so in cases in which they had been highly confident to begin with. These results have implications for the decisions that lawyers routinely make about whether to settle or litigate a case, and if they litigate, what case strategies they pursue.
