ABSTRACT

The predominant theme of republican Egypt's economic history is that of rent seeking, external and internal. Egypt's economy under Nasser thus traced a more or less steady decline. Supporting the generally positive outlook of the country's asset base and its appeal to external actors, whatever that appeals might be, were some encouraging economic signs, at least for the initial year following the coup-volution. The coup-volution intensified underlying macroeconomic imbalances. Budget deficits which had averaged around 7% of gross domestic product even during the gas-fired 'golden years' of neo-liberal reforms in the first decade of the 21st century, blew out in 2011 to 10% and then in 2012 to over 12%. Global economic recession combined with aid fatigue renders Western donors reluctant to commit large sums, especially in conditions of political uncertainty. Growing domestic demand is outpacing increases in supply, so the prospects for expanding gas exports are dim.