ABSTRACT
Based on the yearly data for the caustic soda output during 1998–2019 in China, as well as the industrial added-value index, urbanization rates, and exchange rates (USD/CNY), based on the VAR model, Johansen co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, impulse response, and variance decomposition, this quantitative thesis studies the relationship between caustic soda output and economic social development. The results show that, among the four variables there exists a stable co-integration relationship over the long term. When LnIGDPI, LnCZHL, and LnEX increased by 1%, respectively, in period t – 1, LnNaOH increased –0.1695%, 0.7237%, and –0.1628% in period t. LnNaOH, LnCZHL, and LnEX all Granger caused LnIGDPI. The caustic soda industry and economic social development show mutual promotion. The influence of the economic social development on LnNaOH has a lag. Based on the economic social development plan, the caustic soda industry plan should be made in advance, to better promote the economic social development.
