ABSTRACT

This chapter discusses the problems of prediction and analysis that concern Great Britain and, to a greater or lesser degree, the rest of the Western world. Some biologists believe that, apart from certain recurrent accidents, a population can become uniform in all kinds of desirable ‘inborn’ qualities, and can maintain itself in that state of uniform excellence according to the simple formula that like begets like. Predictions founded upon cohort analysis are somewhat more exact in the sense that one can foresee a little more clearly what follows from one’s assumptions. Policies can be adopted which fall equally far short of tyranny and of laissez-faire; they can be energetic and reasonable and effective without claiming to hold good in perpetuity or to be governed by the workings of grand demographic laws. Demographical data of all kinds for England and Wales are summarized in the Registrar-General’s annual Statistical Review, nowadays published in three parts: medical, civil, and commentary.