ABSTRACT
Intent and capability indicators may suggest that war is on the horizon, yet hostilities do not necessarily follow. Although Israel did attack the Syrian missiles during the invasion of Lebanon a year later, the principal motivation for that war was Jerusalem’s desire to rid Lebanon of a Palestinian armed presence that was perceived as a threat to Israeli security. America’s responsibilities to other states, particularly those within the Arab world that remain technically at war with Israel, clash with US obligations to the Jewish state. To make matters worse for Damascus, the Iraq-Iran war, Egypt-Israel peace treaty, and Syria’s political isolation from the Arab majority made a unified Arab response in support of Syria difficult. The principal factors limiting Israel’s actions in Lebanon were the expected casualties, the danger of a wider war with Syria, and the risk of a negative American reaction.
