ABSTRACT
International climate change politics turned 30 in 2009. At its hour of birth at the first World Climate Conference in 1979, an already large constituency of 400 scientists from 50 countries appealed to ‘the nations of the world … to foresee and to prevent potential man-made changes in climate’ (Gupta 2001, 12). Some 30 years later, anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise unabatedly; no country has yet managed to reverse its upward emissions trend, except through fortunes of history. The collapse of the former Soviet bloc and the outcome of the United Kingdom’s ‘dash for gas’ policy under Thatcher just before the United Nations Frameworks Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) emissions baseline year of 1990 are the exceptions, and the current economic crisis may come to have a similar effect. The climate regime is at a crucial juncture now; will it continue at a slow pace, following the ‘law of the least ambitious program’ (Underdal 1980, 36), or will it take scientific emissions scenarios to heart and recreate itself in a way to achieve deep cuts in emissions in the order of 50%–85% by 2050 (IPCC 2007, 20)? This chapter takes stock of this 30-year history, identifying four distinct phases. The first phase covers the process of politicization of the issue and the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The second phase spans the regime formation process and the adoption of the UNFCCC. Third, the negotiation and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol are examined. Lastly, the fourth phase covers the negotiations toward a post-2012 deal. The chapter provides the chronology and a critical assessment of key features shaping the four phases in terms of the effectiveness and broader consequences of the climate regime.
