Improvement of the ensemble forecast of typhoon track in the Northwestern Pacific

ABSTRACT:   An accurate forecast of typhoon track is essential for the effective mitigation of typhoon-induced loss in the coastal areas. Based on the dynamical analysis of forecast errors of typhoon track at four weather forecast centers, i.e. China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of USA, and Taiwan Meteorological Center (TMC), in this paper, the ensemble forecast method is proposed and further improved by using the running training scheme during the entire typhoon process. The performance of the method is examined by the forecasting of two typical typhoons, i.e. “Damrey” (No. 1210) and “Fitow” (No. 1323), in the region of Northwestern Pacific. The results show that better accuracy is achieved using the ensemble forecast method compared to the results from the four individual forecast centers and the existing method for both the typhoons.