ABSTRACT
The Introduction establishes the variables that need to be studied if we want to understand how voters make up their minds. To beginwith, I hypothesized that these variables were attitudes toward each candidate, issue concerns, and party identification. I used a multiple regression equation, called the Model Equation, with these four hypothesized variables as independent variables, to test the hypothesis. To measure attitudes toward candidates, I used open-ended questions thatasked respondents what they liked and disliked about each candidate. I also used an open-ended question to find the issues respondents were concerned with. These data were entered into the Model Equation for ten elections from 1960 to 2016 and the results consistently showed these the hypothesized variables correctly estimated the vote of 95 percent of respondents.
Many political analysts use demographics, ideology, and polls about issues to explain vote. I tested these variables in the Model Equation, and none explained voters' decisions. The reasons they did not explain the vote were examined in later chapters.
