ABSTRACT
WHEN the Great War first broke out, there was a grievous depression in Japan. Nobody knew what to expect, and nobody was willing to make any engagements. Perhaps the first sign of cheerfulness was the realisation on the part of Japanese importers that they had good stocks of German dyes on hand and that the dyers would have to pay whatever price they demanded for them. For some years the tendency of imports to exceed exports had been a source of anxiety to Japanese economists, and it was noted with satisfaction that in the first half of 1915 exports exceeded imports, though the satisfaction was somewhat damped by the fact that the change was even more due to the decline in imports than to the increase in exports. Raw silk, Japan’s most valuable export, remained at a price that made sericulture hardly worth while, and with trade depressed and good crops the price of rice was also very low. In Japan so large a part of the population has always been interested in the cultivation and sale of rice that, even in days when exports have disappeared and given way to imports for the feeding of the increasing population, a low price for rice is regarded with more alarm than a high one. Marquis Okuma, in order to create stability, organised official companies which bought silk and rice. It seemed to be a very speculative and dangerous measure, but perhaps the talkative old Premier was shrewd enough to see that prices were certain to rise, and events amply justified his action. Prices of metals soon began
to soar, and by the time the war had been in progress for a year there was a boom on the Japanese stock markets. The imports of Chinese coins have already been referred to. At the same time that these were attracting public attention the Premier was also congratulating the country on the steady inflow of gold, and economists were writing and lecturing in terms of the greatest enthusiasm regarding the unexampled opportunity which the war had afforded Japan both to get rich and to make good her position on the neighbouring continent. By May 1916 the Finance Minister, Mr. Taketomi, was almost lyrical in his congratulations to the country on the development of its foreign trade.
