ABSTRACT
WDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\(3$KDVDORQJWHUPLQWHUHVWLQQHXUR HHQGSRLQWLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWR[LFLW\UHIHUHQFHGRVHV$V IÀFH RI 3HVWLFLGH 3URJUDPV EHJDQ SXEOLVKLQJ QHXURWR[LFLW\
USHVWLFLGHVDQGRWKHUWR[LFVXEVWDQFHV7KHJRDORIWKHVHGRF HDIUDPHZRUNRIH[SHULPHQWDOSURWRFROVWKDWZKHQXVHGZRXOG GDWDVHWIRUULVNDQDO\VLV5HFHQWO\ WKH*XLGHOLQHVIRU1HXUR HQW86(3$ZHUHIRUPXODWHGWRIDFLOLWDWHLQWHUSUHWD
GDWDLQDULVNDVVHVVPHQWFRQWH[W$PXOWLIDFHWHGDSSURDFKIRU
N WRKXPDQV WKHJXLGHOLQHV LQFOXGHIRXUPDLQ WRSLFVIRUFRQ DUDFWHUL]DWLRQTXDQWLWDWLYHGRVHUHVSRQVHDVVHVVPHQWH[SRVXUH FKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ$VDQXPEHURIXQNQRZQVFDQH[LVWLQHDFK SWLRQVPXVWEHPDGHZKHQGHWHUPLQLQJULVN)RUH[DPSOHLQ PHQWVH[WUDSRODWLRQIURPDQLPDOGDWDWRKXPDQVLVDSULPDU\
FRQFHUQ ,Q WKLV LQV ZKLFKRIWHQVKDUHFR DSSURDFK WR UHGXFH PDUNHUVWKDWVHUYHD GLIIHUHQFHVRUDUHZH RIWKLVNLQG
7KH QHZ JXLGHO QHXURFKHPLFDODQGQ DQLVWLFDQGSKDUPDF SDVW WR[LFLW\RIWHQ GDWD ,W LV QRZ DSS H[SRVXUHVDQGH[SRV WR LGHQWLI\ SRWHQWLDO H[SRVXUHVLWLVQHFHV DQGWRUHFRJQL]HPR RXWFRPHVVXFKDVVX HDUO\LQVXOW7KHIRF DELOLW\WRLGHQWLI\QH
%LRPDUNHU UHVHD ELRPDUNHUVRIHIIHFW LQFOXGHH[RJHQRXVF EHWZHHQ WKHFRPSRX FKDQJHV LQ HQGRJHQ %LRPDUNHUV RI VXVFH DIIHFWRUJDQLVPV·UHV DYDLODEOHVDPSOHVVX +RZHYHUFKDQJHVP ERG\ÁXLGV7KLVLV EDUULHU FDQSUHYHQW DQGZKHUHVPDOOFKDQ VSLQHIRUPDWLRQLQO DGKHVLRQPROHFXOHV XVHIXODVELRPDUNHUV
7KHGHYHORSPHQ SURFHHGLQJIURPFHO DQG D[RQDO HORQJDWL SURFHVVHVUHTXLUHVVS WKDW UHVXOW LQ LQLWLDWL FKDQJHV RU UHJXODW PDWUL[LQWHUDFWLRQVD &$0V GHULYHG IUR WUDQVPHPEUDQHSURW LOLHVRI&$0VPHGLD LFDOQHHGV
,QWHJULQV DUH WK LQWHUDFWLRQV$V VXF
WDQFH WKH VWXG\ RI SURWHLQV LQPDMRU SK\VLRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV QVLGHUDEOHDPLQRDFLGKRPRORJ\DFURVVVSHFLHVPLJKWEHRQH XQFHUWDLQW\7KH LGHQWLÀFDWLRQ RI VXFK SURWHLQPROHFXODU ELR VSUHGLFWRUVRIQHXURWR[LFLQVXOWDQGDUHLQGHSHQGHQWRIVSHFLHV OOFKDUDFWHUL]HGLQVHYHUDOVSHFLHVZRXOGKHOSWRDGGUHVVLVVXHV
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ÁHFWHGLQ SDUWLFXODUO\WUXHLQQHXURWR[LFLW\VWXGLHVZKHUHWKHEORRG²EUDLQ UHOHDVHRISURWHLQVRUFRPSRXQGV WR WKHSHULSKHUDO FLUFXODWLRQ JHVLQVWUXFWXUHFDQKDYHSURIRXQGFRQVHTXHQFHVHJGHQGULWLF HDUQLQJDQGPHPRU\2XUUHVHDUFKIRFXVHVRQWKHXVHRIFHOO DVELRPDUNHUVRIHIIHFWEXW WKH\DOVRKDYH WKHSRWHQWLDO WREH RIVXVFHSWLELOLW\ WRI WKHQHUYRXVV\VWHPUHTXLUHVDSUHFLVH VHTXHQFHRIHYHQWV OPLJUDWLRQDQGGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQWKURXJKJURZWKFRQHIRUPDWLRQ RQ WR QHXULWH H[WHQVLRQ DQG WDUJHW UHFRJQLWLRQ (DFK RI WKHVH HFLÀFFHOOWRFHOODQGRUFHOOWRH[WUDFHOOXODUPDWUL[LQWHUDFWLRQV RQ RI VLJQDOLQJ FDVFDGH HYHQWVPRUSKRPHWULF RU F\WRVNHOHWDO LRQ RI JHQH H[SUHVVLRQ &HOOWRFHOO DQG FHOOWRH[WUDFHOOXODU UHPHGLDWHGE\DQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWFHOODGKHVLRQPROHFXOHV P UHODWLYHO\ IHZ SURWHLQ IDPLOLHV ,Q PRVW FDVHV &$0V DUH
HLQVWKDWUHTXLUHGLYDOHQWFDWLRQVIRUDFWLYLW\7KHGLIIHUHQWIDP WHYDU\LQJOHYHOVRIFHOODGKHVLRQDQGVHUYHVSHFLÀFSK\VLRORJ
H FHOO DGKHVLRQ PROHFXOHV RI SULPDU\ LPSRUWDQFH LQ QHXUDO K WKH\ DUH OLNHO\ FDQGLGDWHV WR EHPROHFXODU ELRPDUNHUV IRU
QHXURWR[LF HIIHFWV & ERXQG E DQG F VXE HQYLURQPHQW YLD FH )LJXUH (DFK JOREXODUKHDGDQGD WRGLYDOHQWFDWLRQ DQGLQVRPHFDVHVIR PLF WDLO RI WKH F VX DFFHVVRU\SURWHLQV VWUHDPVLJQDOWUDQVG VKRZQOLJDQGDIÀQLW\ )HUQDQGH]HWDO
7KH H[WUDFHOOXOD UHFRJQLWLRQ VLWHV RQ OLJDQGV DUHPRVW RIW WKDWDVVHPEOHLQWRWK FRPPRQUHFRJQLWLRQ DJLQH5*'VHTXHQ OLJDQGVEXWRWKHUUHF ,QWHUDFWLRQ R RXWVLGHLQVLJQDOLQJ WRFRQQHFW WKHF\WRS DQGLQWUDFHOOXODUUHJX
RPSRVHG RI WUDQVPHPEUDQH KHWHURGLPHUV RI QRQFRYDOHQWO\ XQLWV LQWHJULQV OLQN WKH F\WRVNHOHWRQ ZLWK WKH H[WUDFHOOXODU OOWRFHOO RU FHOOWRH[WUDFHOOXODU PDWUL[ (&0 LQWHUDFWLRQV VXEXQLW LV FRPSRVHG RI D ODUJH H[WUDFHOOXODU GRPDLQZLWK D VPDOOF\WRSODVPLFWDLO7KHKHDGRIWKHEVXEXQLWFRQWDLQV ELQGLQJVLWHV WKDWPXVWEHÀOOHG IRU OLJDQGELQGLQJ WRRFFXU UVXEXQLWDVVRFLDWLRQ.LUFKKRIHUHWDO7KHF\WRSODV EXQLW LQWHUDFWV ZLWK WKH F\WRVNHOHWRQ WKURXJK D QXPEHU RI HJYLQFXOLQWDOLQSD[LOOLQWKDWDFWLYDWHDQXPEHURIGRZQ XFWLRQSDWKZD\V$QDO\VLVRIWKHEHWDIDPLO\RILQWHJULQVKDV DQGVSHFLÀFLW\WREHGHWHUPLQHGODUJHO\E\WKHDOSKDVXEXQLW U SRUWLRQV RI WKH E DQG F VXEXQLWV VHUYH DV D UHFHSWRU IRU H[WUDFHOOXODU OLJDQGV RU RWKHU FHOO VXUIDFHV 7KH H[WUDFHOOXODU HQ ODUJH JO\FRSURWHLQV HJ FROODJHQV ÀEURQHFWLQ ODPLQLQV HWKUHHGLPHQVLRQDODUUD\VRIWKHH[WUDFHOOXODUPDWUL[7KHPRVW VLWHIRXQGWRGDWHLVWKH$UJ*O\$VSDUJLQLQHJO\FLQHDVSDU FHIRXQGLQFROODJHQÀEURQHFWLQDQGDQXPEHURIRWKHU(&0
RJQLWLRQVHTXHQFHVKDYHEHHQLGHQWLÀHGIRUUHYLHZVHH+\QHV I WKH H[WUDFHOOXODU OLJDQG ZLWK WKH LQWHJULQ UHFHSWRUV LQLWLDWHV YLDVLJQDOWUDQVGXFWLRQSDWKZD\V7KHDFFHVVRU\SURWHLQVVHUYH ODVPLFGRPDLQVRI WKH LQWHJULQVXEXQLWVZLWK WKHF\WRVNHOHWRQ ODWRU\SURWHLQVHJFDOUHWLFXOLQ3,IRULQVLGHRXWVLJQDOLQJ
,QWHJULQRXWVLGH SKRVSKRLQRVLWLGH P *73DVHVOHDGLQJWR DFWLYDWLRQRISURWHLQ YDWHGSURWHLQNLQDVH LQWXUQLQGXFHQXFOH DQG WUDQVODWLR WUDQVGXFWLRQSDWKZD HQKDQFLQJ RU UHSUHV $FWLYDWLRQRIWKHVHV DQG JHQH H[SUHVVLR DGKHVLRQDQGPLJUDW
,QWHJULQDFWLYDWLRQ RXW VLJQDOLQJSURWHLQ FRQIRUPDWLRQDOFKDQJ DGKHVLRQWRWKHH[WUD ZLWKLQWKHSODVPDP DQG3IDII,QWH
,QWHJULQDFWLYDWLR DJDLQVW DSRSWRVLV6. GLHXQGHUQRQDGKHUHQ FROODJHQ,LQGXFHVFOX RI WKHDQWLDSRSWRWLF V\QWKHVLVGHSHQGHQW UHVFXHGE\WKLVPHWK F\WRVNHOHWDOUHDUUDQJ
LQDFWLYDWLRQUHVXOWVLQDQXPEHURIFHOOXODUUHVSRQVHVLQFOXGLQJ HWDEROLVP 0F1DPHH HW DO DFWLYDWLRQ RI 5KR IDPLO\ FKDQJHVLQF\WRVNHOHWRQVWUXFWXUH'HÀOLSSLHWDOEDQG W\URVLQHNLQDVHV IRFDODGKHVLRQNLQDVH >)$.@QLWURJHQDFWL >0$3@DQGSKRVSKDWDVHV6UF6FKODHSIHUHWDOZKLFK DUVLJQDOLQJSDWKZD\VOHDGLQJWRJHQHH[SUHVVLRQ%UL]]LHWDO Q 3DEOD HW DO $V LV RIWHQ WKH FDVHPHPEHUV RI RQH \FDQPRGLI\ WKHDFWLYLW\RIRQHRUPRUHRI WKHRWKHUVHLWKHU VLQJ WKHLU IXQFWLRQ IRU UHYLHZ VHH 'HÀOLSSL HW DO D LJQDOLQJSDWKZD\VOHDGVWRFKDQJHVLQFHOOF\FOHFHOOVXUYLYDO Q LQ DGGLWLRQ WR WKH EHWWHU NQRZQ LQWHJULQ IXQFWLRQV LQ FHOO LRQ)LJXUH VWDWHDOVRFDQEHPHGLDWHGE\LQWUDFHOOXODUHYHQWV.QRZQDVLQVLGH VELQGLQJ WR WKHF\WRSODVPLF WDLOVRI LQWHJULQVXEXQLWVFDQFDXVH HVLQWKHVXEXQLWH[WUDFHOOXODUKHDGWKDWUHJXODWHUHFHSWRUPHGLDWHG FHOOXODUOLJDQGVDIÀQLW\PRGXODWLRQRUPHGLDWHODWHUDOPRYHPHQW HPEUDQHGXULQJUHFHSWRUFOXVWHULQJDYLGLW\PRGXODWLRQ+XJKHV JULQPHGLDWHGFHOODGKHVLRQRIWHQLVUHTXLUHGIRUFHOOVXUYLYDO QHYHQLQWKHDEVHQFHRIFHOODGKHVLRQKDVEHHQVKRZQWRSURWHFW 1%(FHOOV DQHXUREODVWRPDFHOO OLQHEHFRPHDSRSWRWLFDQG WFRQGLWLRQV6WLPXODWLRQRIVXVSHQGHG6.1%(FHOOVE\VROXEOH
VWHULQJRIEEE9FDQGFLQWHJULQVLQFUHDVHVH[SUHVVLRQ EFOJHQHDQGSURWHFWVDJDLQVWDSRSWRVLV LQDGHQRYRSURWHLQ PDQQHU%R]]RHWDO+RZHYHUQRWDOOFHOOW\SHVFDQEH RG(QGRWKHOLDOFHOOVKDYHEHHQVKRZQWRUHTXLUHDWWDFKPHQWDQG HPHQWVWRSUHYHQWFHOOGHDWK5HHWDO
,W KDV EHHQ K\S FKDQJHVRFFXUULQJ L DWLRQ/73DUHDQLQ LQF\WRVNHOHWRQFRXO 6WDXEOLHWDO KDG QR HIIHFW RQ/7 UHWHQWLRQ WLPH ,Q DG LQWHJULQVXEXQLW(LQ DO ZLWKLQ WK IXUWKHUHYLGHQFHIRU RIV\QDSVHV
1RWRQO\DUHLQWH WKHLU H[SUHVVLRQYDUL WKH GHYHORSLQJ EUDLQ ZKHUHDVJOLDOFHOOSUR $GGLWLRQDOVS WKHELQGLQJDIÀQLW\R LQSODWHOHWVEFLV LW FDQ UHFRJQL]H ERW H[SUHVVPRUHWKDQRQ RQHOLJDQGFRQVHTXH ODUJHO\GXHWR WKHLU GHÀQLWLYHFHOO W\SHD IXOQHVVDVPROHFXODU
,QWHJULQKHWHURGL VHYHUDOQHXURGHJHQH XQLWVKDYHEHHQIRXQ HWDO9DQ*RR F$LVGHULYHGIURP KVHFUHWDVHV6HONRH VKRZ LW LV H[SUHVVHG EF KHWHURGLPHUV H[WHQVLRQDQGV\QDS SDWKZD\V6DERHWDO DQGJOLDLQFRQWUDVW EHHQUHSRUWHGWREHF ZKHUH LW FRXOGPHGL PLPLFVWKH5*'LQW DO7KHUHIRUH FRQWULEXWHWRSDWKROR WKDWWKHLQWHJULQÀEU ÀEULOODUF$WR[LF$3 GDWLRQE\FHOOVDQGG VHTXHQW FHOO DSRSWRV UROH VXJJHVWLQJDFD RIDFRPSOH[LQWHUDF
RWKHVL]HG WKDW V\QDSWLF SODVWLFLW\ LQ WKH IRUP RI VWUXFWXUDO Q WKHSRVWV\QDSWLFGHQGULWLFVSLQHVGXULQJ ORQJWHUPSRWHQWL WHJUDOSDUWRIOHDUQLQJDQGPHPRU\,QWHJULQPHGLDWHGFKDQJHV GSOD\DUROHLQVSLQHIRUPDWLRQDQGVWDELOL]DWLRQ/HHHWDO IRXQGWKDWLQKLELWLRQRILQWHJULQOLJDQGELQGLQJ 3 LQGXFWLRQ RU GHJUHH RI SRWHQWLDWLRQ EXW GLG GHFUHDVH/73 GLWLRQ LPPXQRKLVWRFKHPLFDO VWXGLHVKDYH LGHQWLÀHG WKHE KHEHUHWDODQGWKHE9FKHWHURGLPHU1LVKLPXUDHW H VSLQHV DQG SRVWV\QDSWLF GHQVLWLHV RI GHQGULWHV SURYLGLQJ DUROHRILQWHJULQVLQWKHIRUPDWLRQPDLQWHQDQFHRUSODVWLFLW\
JULQVLQYROYHGLQDQXPEHURIFULWLFDOSK\VLRORJLFDOIXQFWLRQV HVZLWKFHOO W\SHDQG VWDWHRIGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQ)RUH[DPSOH LQ QHXULWH RXWJURZWK LV PHGLDWHG E\ WKH E LQWHJULQ VXEXQLW FHVVH[WHQVLRQLQYROYHVWKHE9LQWHJULQVXEXQLW7DURQHHWDO HFLÀFLW\PD\EHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHDELOLW\RIFHOOV WRUHJXODWH IWKHLQWHJULQUHFHSWRUHJE\LQVLGHRXWPRGLÀFDWLRQV7KXV VSHFLÀFIRUFROODJHQ6WDD]HWDOEXWLQRWKHUFHOOW\SHV K FROODJHQ DQG ODPLQLQ .LUFKKRIHU HW DO 0RVW FHOOV HLQWHJULQUHFHSWRUJLYLQJWKHPWKHDELOLW\WRELQGWRPRUHWKDQ QWO\WKHVHOHFWLYLW\RIDJLYHQFHOOW\SHIRUVSHFLÀFOLJDQGVLV SDWWHUQRI LQWHJULQH[SUHVVLRQ+\QHVDQG/DQGHU7KLV QGVWDWH LQWHJULQH[SUHVVLRQFRQWULEXWHV WR WKHLUSRWHQWLDOXVH ELRPDUNHUV PHUVKDYHEHHQ VKRZQ WREHSUHVHQW DW WKH VLWHRIGDPDJH LQ UDWLYHGLVHDVHV)RUH[DPSOHLQWHJULQEEEDQGFVXE GZLWKLQQHXULWLFSODTXHVRI$O]KHLPHU·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ÀEURQHFWLQ*KLVRHW GLVUXSWLRQRIQRUPDOQHXURQDOFHOODGKHVLRQIXQFWLRQVFRXOG J\RIWKHGLVHDVH,QFRQWUDVW0DWWHUHWDOGHPRQVWUDWHG RQHFWLQUHFHSWRUEFLVFDSDEOHRIELQGLQJWKHVROXEOHQRQ
3EUHDNGRZQSURGXFWIDFLOLWDWLQJLWVLQWHUQDOL]DWLRQDQGGHJUD HFUHDVLQJWKHH[WUDFHOOXODUIRUPDWLRQRIWR[LFÀEULOVDQGFRQ LV ,Q WKLV FRQWH[W LQWHJULQV DSSHDU WR SOD\ D QHXURSURWHFWLYH UHIXOEDODQFHPXVWEHPDLQWDLQHGEHWZHHQPXOWLSOHPHPEHUV WLYHV\VWHP
,QWHJULQ DFWLYLW\ PXOWLSOH VFOHURVLV LQÁDPPDWRU\GLVHDV $UFKHORV HW DO SDWKRJHQHVLVVXFKDV V\QWKHVLV7KH\PHG EORRGQHXURQDO EDUU EHOLHYHGWREHUHTXL WRGHP\OLQDWLRQDQG WKH(&0LQFRQMXQF XODWLQJ7FHOODFWLYD D[RQDORXWJURZWK6
$PXOWLWLHUHGDS DVELRPDUNHUVRIQHX QLTXHVLQFOXGLQJ1R HUQ%ORWSURWHLQZ VHULHVRIJOLDODQGQH IURPWLVVXHFXOWXUH WHVWHG WR LGHQWLI\ LQ ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ RI SRV FXOWXUHVDQGRUYDULR PRQROD\HU RU XVLQJ PDUNHUVRIQHXURWR[ ZLQGRZVRIH[SRVXU EH FDUULHG RXW XVLQ H[SUHVVLRQZLWKRXW JHQHUDOZKROHFHOOWR EHDVVHVVHG IXUWKHU 0RUSKRPHWULF FKDQ FKDQJHV LQ SUROLIHUD DGGLWLRQDOLQGLFDWRUV WKHDERYHVWXGLHVZL VDPHFRPSRXQGV5 LVDQHFHVVDU\VWHSL WR[LFLW\2QFHYDOLGD LQIRUPDWLRQRQQHXUR QHZFRPSRXQGVWKD
2XU LQLWLDO HIIRU SURWHLQ H[SUHVVLRQ L GLIIHUHQWLDWHLQWRDV\ QHUYHJURZWKIDFWRU GLYLVLRQLQGXFHVH[S
DOVR KDV EHHQ LPSOLFDWHG LQ WKH LQGXFWLRQ DQG FKURQLFLW\ RI 06 DQG *XLOODLQ%DUUp V\QGURPH *%6 LPPXQHPHGLDWHG HVRI WKH FHQWUDO DQGSHULSKHUDOQHUYRXV V\VWHPV UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,QWHJULQVPRGXODWH FULWLFDO SURFHVVHV LPSRUWDQW LQGLVHDVH 7FHOODFWLYDWLRQDQGUHFUXLWPHQWF\WRNLQHLQGXFWLRQDQG(&0 LDWHHQWUDQFHRIPRQRQXFOHDUFHOOVWKURXJKWKHEORRGEUDLQDQG LHUV DQG DQWLJHQ SUHVHQWDWLRQ IRU 7FHOO DFWLYDWLRQ ZKLFK LV UHGIRULQLWLDWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFHRIWKHLQÁDPPDWLRQOHDGLQJ ORVVRIIXQFWLRQLQ06+DUWDQG)DEU\&RPSRQHQWVRI WLRQZLWKLQWHJULQVFRQWULEXWHERWKWRFHOOGDPDJHE\FRVWLP WLRQDQGWRQHXURQDOUHFRYHU\E\PRGXODWLQJUHP\OLQDWLRQDQG REHO
APPROACH
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À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
WV DUH GLUHFWHG DW LGHQWLI\LQJ SURÀOHV RI LQWHJULQPHVVDJH DQG Q WKH 3& DGUHQDO SKHRFKURPRF\WRPD FHOO OLQH 3& FHOOV PSDWKHWLFQHXURQDOSKHQRW\SHIROORZLQJWUHDWPHQWIRUGZLWK 1*)*UHHQHDQG7LVFKOHU1*)H[SRVXUHVWRSVFHOO UHVVLRQRIQHXURQDOVSHFLÀFPDUNHUVLQGXFHVQHXULWHH[WHQVLRQ
DQGFDXVHVFHOOVWRE 3& FHOOV KDYH EHH F\WRVNHOHWDO DVVHPEO .HHJDQDQG+DOHJR VHQVLWLYH WR WKH HIIH
HFRPHHOHFWULFDOO\H[FLWDEOHVHHUHYLHZE\)XMLWDHWDO Q XVHG H[WHQVLYHO\ DV DPRGHO RI QHXULWH RXWJURZWK WR VWXG\ \ DQG VLJQDO WUDQVGXFWLRQ SDWKZD\V GXULQJ QHXULWH H[WHQVLRQ XD0DUVKDOO 7KH\DOVRKDYHEHHQ VKRZQ WREH FWV RI NQRZQ QHXURWR[LFDQWV LQFOXGLQJ PHUFXULF FRPSRXQGV
3DUUDQ HW DO DQGWKHDFHW\ 6RQJHWDO
&ULWLFDOWRWKHFX RI LQWHJULQ UHFHSWRU 'LIIHUHQWLDWHG 3& KHWHURGLPHUV LQ SRL JDQJOLRQFHOOV$UUH LGHQWLÀHG E\ FRQIRF ZKHUHLWLVFRQFHQWU 1*)WUHDWHG 3& HURGLPHUDQGWRODP VLWHV$QWLERGLHV WR DQGLQKLELWQHXULWHH VWUDWHGDGLUHFWUHODWL DQG FHOO DGKHVLRQ OH RXWJURZWKLQ3&F DGKHVLRQUHFHSWRU/
7KLVVWXG\FRQFH WKHEUDLQHJEE DUH GHWHUPLQHG ERWK GHYHORSPHQW DQG LQ SODVWLFLW\&RQWURO OH HIIHFW H[SHULPHQWV X SRWHQWLDOGLPHWK\OWL
,GHQWLÀFDWLRQRI RI FULWHULD 7KH SUR SURFHVVWKDWLVOLNHO\ QXPEHU RI FULWLFDO Q DFWLYDWLRQFDQOHDGWR H[SUHVVLRQ ,QDGGLW H[WHUQDOHQYLURQPHQ DFHOOW\SHRUIXQFWLR VSHFLÀFLW\ ,W LVXVHI ,QWHJULQVKDYHEHHQ UHODWHGGLVHDVHVRI W PDUNHUPXVWEHIRXQ LWLVWREHXVHG7KLV
3DUWRIWKHLGHQW GHWHUPLQHZKHWKHULW ZKHWKHU WKH ELRPDU DSSOLFDWLRQWKHUHIRU
3&%V $QJXV DQG&RQWUHUDV OHDG &UXPSWRQ HW DO OFKROLQHHVWHUDVHLQKLELWRUFKORUS\ULIRV'DVDQG%DURQH
UUHQWVWXG\3&FHOOVKDYHEHHQVKRZQWRH[SUHVVDQXPEHU VXEW\SHV LQ FRPPRQ ZLWK WKH EUDLQ 3LQNVWDII HW DO FHOOV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR H[SUHVV LQWHJULQ EF DQG EF QW FRQWDFWV DW WKH FHOO(&0 LQWHUIDFH VLPLODU WR GRUVDO URRW JXLHWDO$QGWKHLQWHJULQEFKHWHURGLPHUKDVEHHQ DO ODVHU VFDQQLQJPLFURVFRS\ LQ WKH ÀORSRGLD RI 3& FHOOV DWHGLQWKHJURZWKFRQHV<DQDJLGDHWDO)XQFWLRQDOO\ FHOOV DGKHUH WR FROODJHQ , DQG ,9 YLD WKH LQWHJULQEF KHW LQLQYLDERWKEFDQGEFKHWHURGLPHUVE\GLVWLQFWELQGLQJ WKHEE DQGF LQWHJULQ VXEXQLWV EORFN WKLV FHOO DGKHVLRQ [WHQVLRQ7RPDVHOOLHWDO$UUHJXLHWDOGHPRQ RQVKLSEHWZHHQOHYHOVRIVSHFLÀFH[WUDFHOOXODUPDWUL[UHFHSWRUV YHOV$QG UHFHQWO\ LQ D VWXG\ RQ PDQJDQHVHLQGXFHG QHXULWH HOOVWKHE9FLQWHJULQFRPSOH[ZDVLGHQWLÀHGDVWKHDFWLYDWHG HLQHWDO QWUDWHVRQLQWHJULQVXEXQLWVH[SUHVVHGERWK LQ3&FHOOVDQG E9DQGF6XEXQLWP51$VDQGSURWHLQH[SUHVVLRQOHYHOV LQ GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJ 3& FHOOV DV D PRGHO RI HDUO\ QHXURQDO WKH 1*) SULPHG FHOOV DV D PRGHO RI ODWH GHYHORSPHQW RU YHOV DUH FRPSDUHG WR LQWHJULQ H[SUHVVLRQ DIWHU WLPH DQG GRVH VLQJ NQRZQ PHWK\O PHUFXU\ VXVSHFWHG FKORUS\ULIRV DQG QQHXURWR[LFDQWV
DISCUSSION
DQHZPROHFXODUELRPDUNHURIHIIHFWHQWDLOVGHÀQLQJDQXPEHU WHLQ PXVW EH SDUW RI D ELRFKHPLFDO SDWKZD\ RU SK\VLRORJLFDO WREHLPSDFWHGE\WR[LFDQWH[SRVXUH,QWHJULQVSDUWLFLSDWHLQD HXUDO IXQFWLRQV ERWK GHYHORSPHQWDOO\ DQG LQ WKH DGXOW 7KHLU FKDQJHVLQVLJQDOWUDQVGXFWLRQSDWKZD\VDQGLQGXFWLRQRIJHQH LRQ WKH\SOD\DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQDFHOO·V LQWHUDFWLRQZLWK LWV WDQGQHLJKERULQJFHOOW\SHV$ELRPDUNHUVKRXOGEHVSHFLÀFIRU Q,QWHJULQH[SUHVVLRQSURÀOHVGLVSOD\ERWKFHOOW\SHDQGIXQFWLRQ XO LI DELRPDUNHUKDVEHHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKGLVHDVHSURFHVVHV DVVRFLDWHGZLWK$O]KHLPHU·VGLVHDVHDVZHOODVZLWK LPPXQH KHQHUYRXV V\VWHP$UFKHORVHW DO$QGÀQDOO\ DELR GWREHFKDQJHGE\WR[LFDQWH[SRVXUHLQWKHV\VWHPIRUZKLFK
ODVWFULWHULDLVWKHSULPDU\DLPRIWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\ LÀFDWLRQDQGYDOLGDWLRQSURFHVVRIDPROHFXODUELRPDUNHULVWR LVDIIHFWHGE\NQRZQWR[LFDQWV,WLVDOVRQHFHVVDU\WRGHWHUPLQH NHU LV VSHFLÀF WR D JLYHQ IDPLO\ RI WR[LFDQWV RU KDV ZLGHU HLWQHHGVWREHWHVWHGDJDLQVWDQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWFRPSRXQGV
ZLWKGLIIHUHQWPHFKD SURWRW\SLFHJPHUF FRPSRXQGV QHXURWR OLQHVDQGLQWLVVXHFX URWR[LFDQW WKDW PD\ IXQFWLRQ)RULQVWDQF LQWHJULQFHOOVXUIDFH DIIHFWHG E\ H[SRVXUH $&K(LQKLELWLQJSH IURPLWV$&K(LQKLE LQWKDWWR[LFLW\YLDUH $QGWKHEXW\O DVSRWHQWLDOFDQGLGDW OLVWDVKLJKSULRULW\F
8VHRI DQ LQYLWU DQG HIIHFW DQG RQ S LQWHQVLYHPDQQHU4X IXQFWLRQ GLUHFWO\ ZL ZKHWKHUDGLVUXSWLRQ VLRQ LHDQ LQGLUHF FKDQJHV LQ IXQFWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJO\PRUHVS RIDFWLRQRIYDULRXVQ DVSRWHQWLDOPROHFXOD
)RUHDUOLHUPRUH ELRPDUNHUVKRXOGEH GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRI3& EVXEXQLWH[SUHVVLR 6LQFH H[SUHV GLIIHUHQWEVXEXQLWVR WRU =KDQJ HW DO SUHFHGLQJQHXULWHRX XVHGDVHDUO\VHQVLWL WLDWLRQRUQHXULWHH[W
)RU WKH VXFFHVVI PXVWEHDYDLODEOH WR OLWWOHOHVVWKDQ\H KDV LQFUHDVHG H[SRQ 0HGOLQHVKRZVWKDW LQWHJULQUHODW GHDOVSHFLÀFDOO\ LQVFLHQWLÀFLQWHUHVWL )RU LQVWDQFH EHWZHH DGGHGQHZDQWLER DQGZLWKGLIIHUHQWIX RSWLRQV 6LPLODUO\ W
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ÀHGE\WKH(3$2IÀFHRI:DWHU HVIRUQHXURWR[LFLW\DQGDUHOLVWHGRQWKHFRQWDPLQDWHFDQGLGDWH RPSRXQGVIRULQYHVWLJDWLRQ RPRGHO DOORZVXV WRGLVVHFWRXWTXHVWLRQVRQRUGHURI FDXVH RVVLEOH VLWHV RI DFWLRQ LQ D UHODWLYHO\ TXLFN DQG QRQDQLPDO HVWLRQVVXFKDVZKHWKHUDJLYHQQHXURWR[LFDQWSHUWXUEVLQWHJULQ WK FRQVHTXHQFHV RQ FHOO DWWDFKPHQW IXQFWLRQ RU VXUYLYDO RU LQFHOOIXQFWLRQVXUYLYDOLVUHÁHFWHGLQOHYHORILQWHJULQH[SUHV WHIIHFWFDQEHDQVZHUHGE\H[DPLQLQJ WKH UHODWLYH WLPLQJRI DQG LQWHJULQ H[SUHVVLRQ %\ SURJUHVVLQJ IURP FHOO OLQHV WR HFLÀFDQGFRPSOH[PRGHOVNQRZOHGJHRISRVVLEOHPHFKDQLVPV HXURWR[LFDQWVFDQEHJDLQHGLQDGGLWLRQWRYDOLGDWLRQRILQWHJULQV UELRPDUNHUV VHQVLWLYHGHWHFWLRQRIWR[LFLW\FKDQJHVLQWKHVHOHFWHGPROHFXODU UHÁHFWHGLQFKDQJHVLQDSK\VLRORJLFDOHQGSRLQW1*)LQGXFHG FHOOVKDVEHHQVKRZQWRFDXVHDWHQIROGLQFUHDVHLQLQWHJULQ QEHIRUHPHDVXUDEOHQHXULWHRXWJURZWKRFFXUV5RVVLQRHWDO VLRQ RI WKH F VXEXQLW LV FRQVWLWXWLYH WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKH IWHQFRQWUROVWKHDPRXQWRIWKHIXQFWLRQDOKHWHURGLPHULFUHFHS &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH LQGXFWLRQ RI E VXEXQLW H[SUHVVLRQ WJURZWKVXJJHVWVWKDWLQWHJULQVXEXQLWH[SUHVVLRQOHYHOVFDQEH YHELRPDUNHUVRIQHXURWR[LFDQWVWKDWDIIHFWQHXURQDOGLIIHUHQ HQVLRQ XO LGHQWLÀFDWLRQ DQG YDOLGDWLRQ RI D QHZ ELRPDUNHU WKH WRROV LQYHVWLJDWH WKHSRWHQWLDOFDQGLGDWHV6LQFH WKHLUGLVFRYHU\D DUVDJRUHVHDUFKLQWRLQWHJULQW\SHVGLVWULEXWLRQDQGIXQFWLRQ HQWLDOO\ $ SUHOLPLQDU\ UHYLHZ RI UHVHDUFK DUWLFOHV OLVWHG RQ VLQFHWKHLUÀUVWPHQWLRQLQWKURXJKWKH\HDUQHDUO\ HGSDSHUVKDYHEHHQSXEOLVKHG2IWKRVHSDSHUVDSSUR[LPDWHO\ ZLWKLQWHJULQVDQGWKHQHUYRXVV\VWHP3DUDOOHOLQJWKHLQFUHDVH
QLQWHJULQVLVLQFUHDVLQJDYDLODELOLW\RIWKHWRROVWRVWXG\WKHP Q DQG RQH PDMRU VXSSOLHU RI LQWHJULQ DQWLERGLHV GLHVWRWKHLUFDWDORJXH³DQWLERGLHVWRGLIIHUHQWVXEXQLWHSLWRSHV QFWLRQDOFDSDELOLWLHVWKDWH[SDQGWKHUHVHDUFKHU·VLQYHVWLJDWLYH KHUH KDYH EHHQ LPSURYHPHQWV LQ DYDLODEOH SURWHLQ H[WUDFWLRQ
SURWRFROV HJ VHSD YDULHW\ DQG LPSURYH WKHKLJKLQWHUHVWLQD UHVHDUFKWHFKQRORJLH LQWHJULQIDPLO\WKHLU RQ PLFURDUUD\V WDUJ LQFOXGHGRQDUHFHQW
:HKDYHLGHQWLÀH RQ LQWHJULQ H[SUHVVLR IRXQG WUHDWPHQWZLWK DWWDFKPHQWWRFROODJH IRXQGWREHSURIRXQG DQG WKH F\WRVNHOHWRQ LQWUDFHOOXODU$73LQW \HWDQRWKHUPHFKDQL QHXURWR[LFDQW H[SRV LPSRUWDQWIDPLO\RIF PD\KDYHDSSOLFDELOL
7KLVGRFXPHQWK 3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\S FRPPHUFLDOSURGXFW :HWKDQN-RKQ+DYH
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ÀF 3& FHOO QDQGFDXVHGDGKHUHGFHOOVWRGHWDFK,QWUDFHOOXODU$73DOVRZDV O\GHFUHDVHG$VLQWHJULQVPHGLDWHLQWHUDFWLRQVEHWZHHQWKH(&0 LQ DQ HQHUJ\GHSHQGHQWPDQQHU LWZDV VXJJHVWHG WKDW ORVV RI HUIHUHGZLWKLQWHJULQFRPSOH[LQJZLWKF\WRVNHOHWDOHOHPHQWV6R VPKDVEHHQSURSRVHGE\ZKLFK LQWHJULQVPD\EH LPSDFWHGE\ XUH2XU VWXG\ LV GHVLJQHG WR SURYLGH QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKLV HOODGKHVLRQPROHFXOHVDQGKRZFKDQJHVLQWKHLUH[SUHVVLRQOHYHOV W\DVPROHFXODUELRPDUNHUVRIQHXURWR[LFLW\
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
DVEHHQ UHYLHZHG LQDFFRUGDQFHZLWK WKH86(QYLURQPHQWDO ROLF\DQGDSSURYHGIRUSXEOLFDWLRQ0HQWLRQRIWUDGHQDPHVRU VGRHVQRWFRQVWLWXWHHQGRUVHPHQWRUUHFRPPHQGDWLRQIRUXVH OIRUGUDIWLQJWKHGUDZLQJLQ)LJXUH
REFERENCES
