ABSTRACT
Organizing framework for new chemical entity (NCE) introduction and expected sales trajectory
The role of Patient Flow, Doctor Adoption, and Treatment Attractiveness in the organizing framework
Simulation tests using the Standard Template dynamic model Strategic implications of simulation scenario tests
Pharmaceutical markets are complex and analyzing them in the context of strategic development is often a difficult proposition. A number of organizing principles are common throughout the pharmaceutical world; Porter’s Five Forces and the ubiquitous Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis are widely accepted approaches for framing strategic issues. In our consulting practice, we have developed an operating framework that provides a useful way to think about marketing strategy when entering/analyzing an indication marketplace. See Figure 11.1 and the three component listings that follow:
1. The Case for a new compound is the set of aggregate, macroeconomic market conditions of the indication being evaluated. Information on epidemiology, changing demographics, tr eatment paradigms, historical market revenue trends, and existing competitors all define the Case for an NCE considered for entry into a new marketplace. Case issues are often summarized as revenue forecasts for an indication (see Chapter 1), although by now readers should readily recognize the underlying operational dynamic assumptions behind such projections. The concept of Case is vital when evaluating the feasibility of continued support of a developmental compound because it determines the aggregate conditions into which such a product introduction will take place. The strategic influence of individual pharmaceutical firms on Case issues must be carefully evaluated, however, because by definition, strategies designed to change the Case also redefine the market environment for all players in it-resulting in a larger pie for both collaborators and competitors.
