ABSTRACT
Previous chapters have demonstrated the value of Dynamic Modeling in analyzing the introduction of new compounds into existing markets. These models used data from currently available products in existing indication marketplaces to estimate market potential, product attribute utilities, patient treatment dynamics, physician acceptance of new compounds, and other important interrelationships driving market behavior. Although uncertainty about the magnitudes of causal relationships always exists, historical data usually provide solid benchmarks for the parameter
estimates that serve as inputs to dynamic model simulations. For example, the hypertension indication is a rather crowded marketplace with welldefined market segments, established evaluations of product attributes, and a wealth of data on past NCE introductions. These historical analogs can provide a means to analyze historical switching behavior, acceptance of newly released products, and the overall pace of new product diffusion. A dynamic model built for the purpose of developing strategies in the hypertension market could therefore be built on a solid foundation of historical experience and indication data.
