ABSTRACT

Many aspects of T&D system design involve siting and routing, which are functions of location and often critical to overall system efficiency. To determine how well a particular load forecast satisfies these T&D planning needs, it is necessary to determine how well it answers those “where?” requirements, as well as if it identifies the “how much?” needs required for capacity planning. Accuracy definitions and error evaluation methods common to system-level (non-spatial) forecasting are little help, because they address only the magnitudinal aspect, not the locational dimension. Spatial error measures, which simultaneously analyze both error in location and error in magnitude, are necessary to determine how well a forecast matches the T&D planning needs.