ABSTRACT
An intriguing approach to spatial forecasting is a combination of trending and simulation, a hybrid algorithm. Trending has much to offer despite its generally lackluster forecast accuracy and lack of representativeness in multi-scenario studies. It uses far less data as well as more obtainable data than simulation. And it is more automatic, requiring less skill and time on the part of the user. On the other hand, the accuracy, representativeness, and intuitive appeal of simulation are part and parcel of a good planning tool. If a method could combine trending and simulation so that the resulting algorithm had all the good qualities of each and none of the bad, it would be a “perfect” forecast method-fast, easy to use, accurate, and appropriate for multi-scenario studies.
