ABSTRACT

Against all odds, on November 8, 2016, the candidate Donald Trump is elected President of the United States of America. And if it was a monumental surprise, it's because all the polls had predicted the defeat of Trump. The pure Bayesian never judges the validity of a model in isolation - except maybe to point out, again and again, that “all models are wrong”. The pure Bayesian will constantly judge the validity of a model relative to other models. The uncertainty of quantum mechanics is usually illustrated by Schrödinger's cat. In this thought experiment, a cat is trapped in a box, with a device that releases a poison in the event of disintegration of a radioactive atom. Quantum mechanics predicts that, as long as the box is closed, the cat is in a strange quantum superposition. In 1935, Einstein, Podolski, and Rosen published an astonishing article, in which they proved that quantum mechanics cannot be a local theory.