ABSTRACT
One of the biggest paradigm shift in one's thinking, and also for a lot of people, has been learning about Bayes’ rule. We are spontaneously irrational creatures unable to correctly revise our beliefs, and understanding Bayes’ rule can really help us improve. The oversimplified Bayesian computation is absolutely not an always-satisfying answer. And the correct Bayesian computation is far too complex to be carried out, even by the best of us. The pure Bayesian’s answer is pretty univocal: no. Even in sub-Saharan Africa where this terrible disease was most deadly, no more than one person out of 10,000 died of Ebola. Thus, a priori, one who only had a brief stay in Nigeria do not have more than one chance out of 10,000 to be sick with Ebola. This probability is succinctly denoted.
