ABSTRACT
The human mind is not analytical by nature. Many people begin a problem analysis by formulating their conclusions, thus beginning where an analysis should end. Risk analysis science is succeeding by imposing some structure on the way we make decisions under uncertainty. Risk managers are challenged at times to avoid risk by solving problems and at other times to prudently take risks by pursuing opportunities. A problem is usually an existing undesirable condition perceived as negative or objectionable. In contrast, an opportunity is usually a positive condition that does not yet exist and will not likely exist unless intentional steps are taken to make it happen. Careful identification of problems and opportunities is essential to good risk management. Over a dozen problem identification techniques are described. The problems and opportunities statement is presented as the primary output of this process and the cornerstone for effective risk management.
