ABSTRACT

Instance-level exploration methods help us understand how a model yields a prediction for a particular single observation. We may consider the following situations as examples:

We may want to evaluate effects of explanatory variables on the model’s predictions. For instance, we may be interested in predicting the risk of heart attack based on a person’s age, sex, and smoking habits. A model may be used to construct a score (for instance, a linear combination of the explanatory variables representing age, sex, and smoking habits) that could be used for the purposes of prediction. For a particular patient, we may want to learn how much do the different variables contribute to the score?

We may want to understand how would the model’s predictions change if values of some of the explanatory variables changed? For instance, what would be the predicted risk of heart attack if the patient cut the number of cigarettes smoked per day by half?

We may discover that the model is providing incorrect predictions, and we may want to find the reason. For instance, a patient with a very low risk-score experienced a heart attack. What has driven the wrong prediction?