ABSTRACT
This chapter introduces the fundamental principles for using computer-based simulations based on historical equipment production data to more accurately estimate machine productivity. The advent of powerful personal computers combined with commercial simulation software packages that work together with commercial spreadsheet programs have made simulations a robust tool for quantifying the uncertainty that is inherent to the estimating and bidding process. Simulation can give the estimator and project manager information that cannot be determined through simple deterministic spreadsheet calculations. Their greatest benefit is in their ability to more closely model the reality of a construction project where not every cycle is equal to or less than the cycle time used in the bid. By allowing experienced construction management professionals to see things in a different quantitative fashion, simulations allow those persons to temper their professional judgment with hard facts and numbers, thereby creating a means to better manage the risks inherent to any equipment-intensive project.
