ABSTRACT
In tackling our murder mystery back in Chapter 1, we first gathered evidence from the crime scene and then used our own knowledge to construct a probabilistic model of the murder. We incorporated the crime scene evidence into the model, in the form of observed variables, and performed inference to answer the query of interest: what is the probability of each suspect being the murderer? We then assessed whether the results of inference were good enough – that is, was the probability high enough to consider the murder solved? When it was not, we then gathered additional data, extended the model, re-ran inference and finally reached our target probability.
