ABSTRACT
The evolution of probability emerging from gambling is discussed. Event, outcome, likelihood, and probability functions are explained using dice. Average and expectation values are discussed. The law of large numbers is described with numerous warnings about its misinterpretation. A brief discussion of cards leads into combinatorics with permutations and combinations explained. We then discuss probability distributions and show their relationship to integral calculus. There is a brief discussion of stochastic processes and random walks. Statistics are introduced with a plethora of warnings as well as a discussion of why people need to understand them. We focus on the scientific uses of statistics, discussing half-life, and the Poisson distribution and measurements. We then shift to talking about polling and how error is often ignored to the detriment of an informed voting public. From there we discuss the development of medicines and the risks of error in that field. We end with the scientific importance of the null hypothesis.
