ABSTRACT
The risk of being struck by lightning in the United States can easily be calculated based on historical values. The movie The Big Short deals with the epistemic risk leading up to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Many investors were unaware of the problems with mortgage-backed securities. The historical estimate of the number of people injured or killed by lightning while swimming in an indoor pool is zero, based on the statement from the National Association of Parks and Recreation. Risk management decisions necessarily proceed from the initial steps of planning and scoping activities and problem formulation. The product of a problem formulation likely the most useful to the largest number of stakeholders is the conceptual model. Human nature tends to make one overconfident when strength is high and weight is low, and underconfident when strength is low even if the weight is high. A variety of human tissues or fluids have been used as sources of biomonitoring or biomarker data.
