ABSTRACT
This chapter provides an introduction to techniques and tools for analyzing risk. The additional message for risk analysts is to use these tools with the appropriate degree of humility and good faith and be able to explain what has been done with simplicity and clarity. Ontological uncertainty is much more difficult to address because the underlying lack of knowledge is not recognized or understood. Ontological uncertainty represents the gap between the risk analyst’s perception of reality and the true reality. The National Academies of Sciences published a document in 2019 titled Reproducibility and Replicability in Science. Systematic review represents a data-driven path to provide a comprehensive assessment of data quality before these data can be used for decision-making. The statistical modeling facility in Excel is somewhat limited and has engendered the development of a number of packages to perform Monte Carlo simulation.
