ABSTRACT

Imagine that we, the authors, invite you over for dinner. It took us hours to forage mushrooms and cook them up into something delicious. Putting niceties aside, you might have some questions for us: Do you know what you're doing? Are these mushrooms safe to eat? After dinner, we offer to drive you home in a new car that we just built. Before obliging, it would be wise to check: Is this car safe? How did it perform in crash tests? Just as one should never eat a foraged mushroom or get in a new car without questioning their safety, one should never apply a model without first evaluating its quality. No matter whether we're talking about frequentist or Bayesian models, “simple” or “big” models, there are three critical questions to ask. Examining these questions is the goal of Chapter 10.