ABSTRACT
Bayes’ theorem is one of probability theory (originally stated by the Reverend Thomas Bayes), and may be seen as a way of understanding how the probability that a theory is true is affected by a new piece of evidence. The theorem has been used in a wide variety of contexts, ranging from marine biology to the development of ‘Bayesian’ spam blockers for email systems; in science, it has been used to try to clarify the relationship between theory and evidence. Insights in the philosophy of science involving confirmation, falsification and other topics can be made more precise, and sometimes extended or corrected, by using Bayes’ theorem.
