ABSTRACT
Predictive models utilise variable asset inspection and test data and statistical probability toward forecasting the future condition and risk of the asset. Predictive modelling of performance supports the management questions of when and/or how the deterioration occurred as well as to proactively circumvent potential problems. Predictive modelling of ageing of infrastructure is a powerful tool toward more proactive maintenance and optimisation of life-cycle costs. The majority of factors that are used for an empirical or deterministic analysis are generally static in nature, whereas the probabilistic approach allows a degree of uncertainty of each of the factors when undergoing mathematic predictive analysis. The deterministic methodology is based on a sequence of mathematical steps that are strictly followed in the analysis. Deterministic predictive models return a given value of condition following ageing based on a set of mathematical equations determined through known relationships between parameters contributing to ageing.
