ABSTRACT
This chapter begins our study of elections by focusing on obtaining information from an opinion polls. Here, we will take the simplest polling scheme and build the statistical foundation to a deeper understanding of polls, how they are performed, and what they can tell us. Along the way, we will come to a deeper understanding of the causes of that variation, as well as its effects.
The statistical foundation includes sampling schemes, probability distributions, bias, and mean squared error. From this foundation, we will build a deeper understanding of what polls actually tell us, and why they cannot tell us more. The Scottish independence referendum serves as the persistent example for this chapter.
