ABSTRACT

Thus far, we have been drawing conclusions from a single poll. While this is a useful skill to have, elections are polled frequently; that is, there are multiple polls taken in a given election. Can we better estimate the population support, π, if we combine those multiple polls? Clearly, since this chapter exists, the answer is yes. The more interesting question concerns how we can combine the polls in a meaningful way.

Using the 2017 South Korean election as a backdrop, this chapter looks at methods for combining and weighting polls to properly predict the election result. While elections are random, much like the world, these methods do improve on estimates.