ABSTRACT
Mathematical projection offer powerful tools to solve the real-world problems of biology and life sciences without any bias. It facilitates addressing of various analytical interventions on different infectious and noninfectious diseases and their control measures. In particular, we have developed new mathematical models to understand the real mechanism of novel coronavirus disease (COVID) pandemic at the global level. Three-dimensional dynamic models were formulated to extrapolate the disease transmission at various trajectory transmission points in association with clinical attributes and different parameters of our interest (real data sets extracted from CDC and WHO open-source Web platforms).The demonstrated model revealed that the COVID-19 virus is a virulent one and rapidly transmits the infection through touching, hugging, kissing, sneezing, respiratory droplets, sharing of toilets, common articles, frequent rubbing of nose and eyes with little hygiene, common transportation, migration from one place to another, exposure to mass or public places, sharing of syringes or needles, etc. The models1, and 2are vulnerable at the defined state of transmission mechanism (the infected cells and free viruses are transmitting the infection at time “t”), and the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) 3was shown to be asymptotically unstable and epidemic stage. The4 will become full blown at a susceptible population level, with the reproduction number5.
