ABSTRACT
The level of understanding the origination of natural disasters and, hence, the efficiency in predicting their time, conditions, and severity lags behind the practical needs of national economy. A specific feature of natural disasters is that they are virtually unavoidable. Vulnerability of unique structures exposed to disastrous actions and possibility of their damage or collapse depend on: When analyzing structural vulnerability or safety it is expedient to single out critical elements on which the structural safety depends most. Coincidences, in general, are great stumbling blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the theory of probabilities—that theory to which the most glorious objects of human research are indebted for the most glorious of illustrations. The term “disaster” is understood here as any environmental change endangering human lives and materially deteriorating living conditions.
