ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses the associated with probabilistic calculations of the reliability. It argues that these and other difficulties are either overlooked or pushed under the rug, as it were, by the probabilistic analysts. One can construct numerous simple examples that demonstrate sensitivity of the failure reliability to the tails of the probability distributions of the random values involved. It can be directly seen on an elementary example of evaluation of probabilistic characteristics. Blekhman, Myshkis and Panovko write:Significantly, the weakness of numerous works on stochastic models- sometimes ruling out any application-lies in the choice of statistical hypothesis, especially of assumptions regarding the probalistic features of the given accidental quantities and functions. The number of linear problems has been considered under set-theoretical, convex modeling of uncertainty in structures, and in monograph. Some engineers suggest, therefore, to utilize some characteristic “worst” case analysis.
