ABSTRACT
This chapter presents examples of widely used risk models and some of their special features, discusses the applications of absolute risk models in disease prevention and prognostication following disease onset, and outlines the contents and structure of the book. It describes how Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) was developed and updated, some of its features, and efforts to test its calibration and discriminatory accuracy. BCRAT was originally derived from data from the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP), which was designed to encourage women to be screened with mammography to detect breast cancer. The Framingham Model estimates the pure 10-year cumulative risk of coronary heart disease, defined as angina pectoris, coronary insufficiency, myocardial infarction, or death ascribed to coronary heart disease. Risk projections from this model are widely used to make recommendations for interventions to prevent heart disease, including the use of statins. The concept of absolute risk is also clinically useful for patients who have developed a disease.
